A tale of two professions

Drowning in sorrow, obscured in mist
Centuries of torment, torture persist
Destiny's cold hand grasping in vain
Building new order from the past's pain
Republic born of pain
Nation will rise again 

Chthonic - Next Republic

It’s a tale of two professions: Freddy Lim, vocalist and front man of extreme metal band Chthonic, has been elected into the Legislative Yuan, in the Taipei City #5 constituency. His opponent in the running warned voters not to trust a man who has longer hair than a woman, but to no avail. Certainly, the election of Freddy Lim shows the openness of the Taiwanese voter to the new and unknown. In the US, for example, a high-profile metal musician such as Lim would likely have little chance.  Lim does have previous experience in the public sector, as he was chairman for Amnesty International Taiwan from 2010 – 2014. He had no previous experience in politics. Hear him talk about his election and his views at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKxE7aTMTlw.

While also very exciting news for Lim himself, by electing him into parliament, the Taiwanese voters, as noted before, have indicated that they are open to a new approach. Lim and his party, the New Power Party (NPP), have only been around since 2015. In addition, the NPP was founded specifically for these January 2016 elections. In the elections, the NPP was aligned with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The NPP’s ideology is generally progressive, with a particular emphasis on safeguarding human rights, promoting democracy, and Taiwanese independence. Because of this, the New Power Party ideology can be seen as a manifestation of the ideas from 2014 Sunflower Student movement, which proposed democratic processes and independence similar to the NPP.

The New Power Party also proposes transitional justice in Taiwan. This is “an approach to achieving justice in times of transition from conflict and/or state repression. By trying to achieve accountability and redressing victims, transitional justice provides recognition of the rights of victims, promotes civic trust and strengthens the democratic rule of law.” (definition by International Centre for Transitional Justice: https://www.ictj.org/about/transitional-justice).  According to the New Power Party, transitional justice should be applied to the past KMT repression, in particular the political repression of ‘White Terror’ and the 228 Incident. Estimates of deaths in the 228 Incident vary with original estimates at 10,000 (http://www.taiwandc.org/hst-1947.htm), though the real number was likely higher.

A tale of two professions: extreme metal vocalist and legislator Freddy Lim.

The anger that runs through Lim’s music, then, is hardly unimaginable. Only in the years following democratization in the late 1980s and early 1990s was the taboo on the 228 Incident and White Terror lifted. Lim, being born in 1976, was likely one of the first who grew up in an environment where information on as these topics could be uncovered. Indeed, it seems natural that many of the NPP’s voters seem to be Taiwanese youth: those who aligned with the Sunflower movement should be likely to vote for a party that identifies with that movement. Those that only grew up in a democratized Taiwan seem to question the KMT’s legitimacy and trustworthiness more often, and the NPP is one of the parties that do exactly that and oppose KMT ideology.

What the NPP can do for its voters in reality remains to be seen in the near future. Politics will no doubt turn out to be a far cry from touring the world with a metal band.  But the election has shown us that along with the NPP, new ideas for Taiwan have been brought into play by a new generation. In any case, I hope that Lim, and all those who were elected, will be able to build towards a better Taiwan for the next.

Chou Tzuyu and other shenanigans

Almost a week ago now a scandal involving 16-year old Chou Tzuyu, member of K-pop group TWICE, started off. Now that the dust has settled, it's an appropriate time to take a look at what has gone on and what the consequences might be.

First off, let's start with looking at what actually happened. The incident was sparked by Tzuyu waving a Taiwanese flag on video. This apparently angered Chinese nationals, who threatened to boycott the Chinese touring activities that were planned for TWICE. The instigators of this movement saw the Taiwanese flag as a provocation and display of Taiwanese pro-independence thought. Who exactly was behind this boycott movement is not entirely clear, but what is clear is that it caused TWICE's talent agency to force Tzuyu to read an apology letter on video in order to not have touring activities for TWICE (and related acts) cancelled. In the video (which can be seen here), Tzuyu reads a letter saying she is sorry and that she believes that China and Taiwan are one:

Hello everyone. I have something to say to all of you. I am Tzuyu. I'm sorry, I should have apologized earlier. I didn't dare to face all of you earlier because I didn't know how to react to the current situation. There is only one China, Taiwan and China are part of the same country. I have always been proud of my identity as a Chinese. As a Chinese, during my activities in China, due to my words and actions, I have caused harm to my company and to netizens. I feel very sorry and ashamed. I have decided to suspend all my activities in China and reflect on my actions. Once again, I'm very very sorry.  
Translation by Anna Cheang, as reported at http://www.kpopstarz.com/articles/266546/20160115/twice-tzuyu-taiwan-apology.htm

This video caused outrage among Taiwanese, with people claiming Tzuyu shouldn't have to apologise for being (or feeling) Taiwanese. This sparked feelings of disgust towards China and the Korean talent agency, and ironically, national pride among some Taiwanese. Also of note is that the video was released on 15 January, one day before the general elections. Of course, we now know that in those elections, the DPP was to gain a major victory. The role of the Tzuyu incident in this victory will likely not have been significant, but one can't help but notice the coincidence.

The picture that started it all: Tzuyu with the Korean and Taiwanese flag. 
 
The ultimate question, though, is why. Why was the simple waving of a Taiwanese flag extrapolated to being supportive to the pro-independence movement? And why was the talent agency and by extension, Tzuyu, pressured so hard to release the apology video? The low quality and seemingly forced way in which the letter was read made it easy for some to compare it to an IS hostage video. While these two are certainly different, I wonder what the benefit is of having a 16-year old kowtow to China. Maybe they want to crack down on anything and everything that comes close to Taiwanese pro-independence as they cling on to the hope that Taiwan can be annexed. Maybe it is to indirectly justify some domestic policy yet to come in light of the recent economic troubles that China has to endure. I am by no means an expert on China, so please feel free to comment if you have something to add or remark.

But if anything, this whole affair makes China look worse to the outside world. Regardless of what your political alignment is, it will be easy to agree with the statement that 16-year old pop idols should not be forcefully made into political tools. And interestingly, as this is not a completely isolated incident, it may even be part of a seemingly larger strategy. I don't think that is the case, but if it was, that would be very surprising indeed. Acts like bullying a minor as happened last week, telling Taiwanese people to stop hallucinating or internet users writing mass posts on Facebook promoting unification and criticizing the Taiwanese independence movement in my view will only do China harm. They only serve to harden and reinforce pro-independence thought within Taiwan and push it further and further away from China.

China will need to re-appraise its policy towards Taiwan if it wants to gain any credibility at all, both in the eyes of Taiwan and the rest of the world as well. If incorporating Taiwan into China is truly what they're after, then I cannot help but wonder what the hell they are doing right now. It's certainly not going to happen any time soon, and with acts like the ones we have seen recently, they're not going to get any closer to that goal. As a matter of fact, going after Tzuyu (as well as the other recent pro-unification activities) will only increase the distance between China and Taiwan. I wonder what's next. If this is a trend and it continues, it looks like it'll be more puzzling and futile anti-independence activities for now.

Tsai & DPP...and now?

The Taiwanese general elections have been subject of global news. Anyone who knows about the general elections must have gathered that the current opposition party DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) have convincingly beaten the KMT (Kuomintang). For the first time in history, Taiwan will have a female president, Tsai Ing-Wen. At 56%, around 7 million voters judged Tsai to be the most suitable candidate, which is well over the 31% that the KMT candidate Chu got (source: https://tw.election2016.yahoo.com/index.html). For the Legislative Yuan (for those unfamiliar with political terminology, it is the Taiwanese equivalent of Parliament, Congress, or other legislative bodies), DPP has a comfortable majority, at 68 of the 113 seats, KMT has 35. Prior to the elections, KMT held 60 seats, with DPP trailing at 40. Talk about a swing in the balance of power.

The KMT losing out in the election is not unexpected. Past protests against the then currently ruling KMT had pointed out the decline of Ma's approval rate to a measly 9.2%. He also probably did not make himself any more popular by holding talks with China in November 2015, breaking his promise never to talk with China. Interestingly, these talks were reported in a positive light by Western media, although the move was possibly political suicide.

But the shift in power that's as dramatic as the one we've seen unfold yesterday, leads one to wonder what will happen from now on. There are still many questions that cannot be answered, but it is possible to make an educated guess at some topics that might see a bit of a change.

Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, Taiwan's defence policy. The KMT has long held back big spending on active defence. The DPP thinks differently, aiming to increase defence spending (which would please their military partners the US) and take a more defiant stance with regards to China. More on this latter topic is to come later. After all, Taiwan is almost constantly under threat or implicit threat of being invaded. It will be interesting to see whether Tsai is willing to sacrifice funds to dedicate to defence, where the KMT was not.

Tied to this is the economy. In Clinton's 1992 campaign against Bush senior, "The economy, stupid!" had been coined to indicate the importance of economic policy in elections. Indeed, how much money people have to spend and how much they will have to spend in the future is a factor that gains or loses you votes. Interestingly, however, the Taiwanese economy has been rather weak lately. According to Bloomberg, Taiwan faces considerable risk of recession (source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/meet-2016-s-worst-economic-performers-flirting-with-disaster). A major factor in this trend is the economic downturn of China itself. It is rather difficult to predict what changes the new government might cause economically. If they are to cooperate less with China economically, this might mean lower exports, hurting the economy. On the other hand, a cooling down of the economic cooperation with China might cause Taiwan to not be dragged down as much by the Chinese downturn. But I can definitely imagine the economy being a difficult point, on which Tsai is going to have significant troubles keeping afloat. Wherever the Taiwanese economy is headed, it is a difficult matter, and for now we'll have to wait and see what happens.

Finally, there is the diplomatic elephant in the room. Taiwanese independence. Interestingly, the younger generation seems to be more enthusiastic about independence than the older people. It is therefore unlikely that Taiwan will declare their independence tomorrow; on top of that it would simply antagonise China too much. A complete escalation would be disastrous. But Tsai might very well not adhere to the 1992 Consensus (more on it in my previous post). After all, it was agreed upon by KMT, whose views on the independence/reunification matter clash with those of the DPP. Should the 1992 Consensus be rejected by Taiwan, the problems I spoke about in my earlier post on the One China policy grow even larger. To restate in one sentence, without the 1992 Consensus to rely on, the policy loses its validity. 

In short, there are three major points of interest as the balance of power has changed in Taiwan: military, economy, and diplomacy. As I have indicated before, I think we have stood by idly for long enough. The time might soon come for the rest of the world to ensure Taiwan does not stand alone. It has shown to be a brilliant young democracy in a hostile environment. If we think it's worth fighting for democracy, then standing together with Taiwan in the future may be something to consider.


A few recommendations for further reading:

http://warontherocks.com/2016/01/the-cost-of-credible-deterrence-in-taiwan/

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwans-circle-of-friends-may-get-smaller 

 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/01/17/2003637385