Maintaining the status quo

'Maintaining the status quo' with regards to China is apparently what the Taiwanese government will be doing for now. Taiwan seems to have little choice, with the possibility of aggravating relations with China on one hand, and alienating itself from its populace on the other hand. It has to walk a thin line, and for now that might be shown through carrying on as usual. On the surface this seems perfectly reasonable, but if we look closer, we can see the ridiculousness that’s behind this situation.

Let’s consider a swing in either policy towards reunification with China, or in further asserting independence. Firstly, let’s consider reunification. The Taiwanese people have indicated they have no interest in this, by voting the DPP into power. In the extremely unlikely and politically suicidal event that the DPP 180s and runs into China’s arms, it’s not very likely that the Taiwanese would stand by and let that happen. After all, not a great many people are willing to give up democracy after they’ve fought to gain it.

How about further asserting independence? Apart from the more abstract threat of for example economic sanctions, Taiwan faces a military threat from China. Poking the dragon too much could be disastrous. But, and this is where it gets ridiculous, let’s consider how Taiwan could assert its independence. The reason that the Chinese-Taiwanese conflict came to be was the Chinese Civil War and the opposition between the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China. Indeed, this is the basis for the One China policy, which I have discussed before. But if Taiwan were to relinquish its claim to be China (as agreed between KMT and CCP representatives in 1992), wouldn’t that solve the problem? The answer is no. China does not want Taiwan to relinquish its claim. China claims Taiwan to be a renegade province because they're called the Republic of China. Taking this name away would make China’s claim to Taiwan illegitimate. And that is the last thing that they would want.

So we’ve got this weird situation in which China and Taiwan are at odds, and Taiwan gets the diplomatic short end of the stick. This was possible because both of them claim to be China. Yet one of the two does not want the other to solve this problem. If that’s not fraught with irony, then I don’t know what is.

So the only option that remains for Taiwan is to ‘maintain the status quo’. It is no coincidence that I am posting this entry at this time. Former president Lee, who was president from 1988 – 2000 and was the first democratically elected president, has recently offered his views on the matter. In a new book, he proposes to maintain the status quo, which in his view is independence from China. He also says Taiwan should do away with the claim of it being the Republic of China (read more in this Taipei Times article). The first statement makes perfect sense to me. Taiwan being currently independent from China is something that is something that cannot be denied. But the second claim is a bit more difficult to agree on. While it would be nice to be able to do so, Taiwan stands alone if it chose to walk that path.

So for now, the status quo will have to be maintained. It will remain to be seen for how long this can be dragged on. The new generation of voters is largely more liberal and pro-independence than the old guard. And I’m not sure if they’ll be content with nothing changing in the long run.